GDP in Spain: Growth Moderation in Q3 2023

In this post Discover the comprehensive analysis of Spain’s GDP performance in the third quarter of 2023 and gain insights into the economic trends shaping the nation. Our analysis covers key aspects, including the evolution of GDP throughout 2023. Dive into the report prepared by our expert team for an in-depth understanding of the latest GDP data in Spain. (GDP in Spain)

Analysis of Preliminary GDP in Spain for Q3 2023

The final GDP for the third quarter of 2023 affirms a year-on-year increase of +1.8% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of +0.3%. Domestic demand plays a significant role, contributing 1.8 percentage points in year-on-year terms, while Foreign Ministry contribution remains at zero. The implicit GDP Deflator aligns with the preliminary announcement of +6.1% year-on-year in Q3 2023.

Bankinter Opinion: Q3 2023 data confirms the trend of moderated quarter-on-quarter growth seen in the previous quarters of 2023 (+0.6% q/q, +0.4% q/q, and +0.3% q/q in Q1, Q2, and Q3 2023, respectively). Our expectations signal a slowdown in the second half of 2023, projecting +2.4% year-on-year for 2023, +1.4% for 2024, and +2.1% for 2025.

Preliminary GDP Analysis for Q3 2023

Preliminary GDP for Q3 2023 records a +1.8% year-on-year growth, surpassing expectations of +1.7%. National demand contributes +1.7 percentage points, while Foreign Sector adds +0.2 percentage points. In quarter-on-quarter terms, GDP registers a +0.3% increase, exceeding the estimated +0.2%. The implicit GDP deflator stands at +6.1% year-on-year, slightly lower than the preliminary +6.4%.

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Analysis of GDP in Spain for Q2 2023

The final GDP for Q2 2023 has been revised upward to +2.2% year-on-year, indicating a strong start to the financial year. Domestic Demand contributes +2.3% to growth, with Private Consumption growth at +2.2% year-on-year. Public Spending accelerates to +4.1% year-on-year, and Investment maintains a +2% year-on-year growth. The External Sector weakens, contributing -0.1 percentage points.

The implicit GDP Deflator shows +6.4% year-on-year in Q2 2023. Productivity drops -0.8% year-on-year, while compensation per employee grows +5.4% year-on-year. Unit Labor Costs increase to +6.2% year-on-year.

In summary, the revised figures indicate a robust start to the year, maintaining a slight quarter-on-quarter moderation. Inflationary tensions and weaker leading indicators suggest an expected deceleration starting in H2 2023. Our projections foresee +2.1% year-on-year for 2023, +1.8% for 2024, and +2.1% for 2025.

Annual Variation of Spain’s GDP

The INE GDP review for 2021 and 2022 results in a revision of GDP growth to 6.4% year-on-year and 5.8% year-on-year, respectively. The review also adjusts the decline in 2020 to -11.2%, slightly smaller than initially estimated.

Domestic Demand’s contributions to growth are revised upwards, indicating a stronger recovery. The pre-pandemic level is anticipated to be reached in 2022 instead of Q1 2023. The Debt/GDP volume is revised to 111.6% at the end of 2022, compared to the anticipated 113.2%.

This routine review provides a more accurate representation, replacing temporary information with structural data, and offering definitive estimates.

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